is conscription coming?
03/03/2026
Over the weekend, the US and Israel launched a series of strikes on Iran, ultimately killing Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the majority of high command in Iran. Allegedly, his son Mojtaba Khamenei has been selected as the new supreme leader, but at the time of writing, there has not been any official confirmation of this.
Initially Keir Starmer ruled out becoming involved, stating that avoiding conflict in Iran was the “best way forward for the region”. Understandably the Prime Minister will be reluctant to take Britain into a new conflict in the Middle East with the shadow of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars forever behind us. Instead he vowed to provide support in the air with British Jets in the Gulf to detect and eliminate threats from Iranian missile strikes and by allowing the US to use British bases for a “limited defensive purpose”.
However, after an Iranian drone strike on RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus it has now been decided that HMS Dragon will be sent to the Mediterranean country to protect civilians and military personnel who will now be considered Iranian targets.
“The UK is fully committed to the security of Cyprus and the military personnel based there” - Keir Starmer.
This new conflict that is quickly escalating across the Middle East does once more raise questions about Britain's capabilities of engaging in a full scale war as well as our preparedness for any eventual conflict.
As of October 1st 2025, according to the Gov.uk website, the number of personnel in the armed forces is 182,070 and the number of trained reserves is 29,070.
This is broken down as:
-Royal Navy/Royal Marines: 37,880
-Royal Air Force: 35,130
-Army; 109,060
In comparison, looking at the two nations leading the strikes against Iran their armed force are as follows:
The US has a total of approximately 1.3 million members of the military across six branches.
According to a CNN article published on 29th September 2024 Israel has an army of 126,000 (100,000 of which are conscripted), an air force of 34,000, a Navy of 9,500 and then an enormous number of reserves estimated to be 465,000 in total.
On the opposing side of the conflict, Iran has the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) with approximately 150,000 ground troops and 20,000 in its Naval force. In addition the country also has the conventional military split across four branches and totalling approximately 420,000 personnel.
Israel has also led strikes against Hezbollah (funded and trained by Iran) in Lebanon who military experts believe to have between 30,000 and 50,000 fighters. However, before his death in 2024, Lebanese leader Hassan Nasrallah claimed Hezbollah had more than 100,000 fighters.
These figures alone should be worrying when looking at the scale of military opponents Britain may have to face alongside America and Israel.
However, it is not only the conflict in the middle east we may be contending with. It should also be factored in that if the war between Russia and Ukraine escalates to involve more NATO member states (including Great Britain) and if Putin chooses to support Iran and Hezbollah militarily against the US and Israel then the UK risks lacking the manpower to be involved in two conflicts simultaneously. The prospect of conscription is undesirable but so too is the thought of our military torn across two conflicts and unable to adequately defend against the threat from either.
Surely it is not a question of if but rather, when conscription will be introduced to support our existing troops in the growing threats across the globe.
